The Mobile 2.0 Conference yesterday was a lot of fun and great day of discussion about the future of mobile. While there was definitely some kinks, it was an excellent first event that I hope it will become an annual one. A big thanks go to Mike Rowehl, Dan Appelquist, Greg Gorman and others for putting this together.
On the flight back, I had a chance to reflect about some of the things that I learned or surprised me about the event.
#1 Mobile 2.0 = The web
The thing that surprised me the most about the event was how much the web was discussed, specially the mobile web. I had anticipated a little discussion about the web throughout the day. Usually when mobile geeks get together they talk about mobile applications, carriers, J2ME midlets, blah blah blah. But yesterday was different.
It was obvious that in the minds of many, Mobile 2.0 is the web. Mobile is already a platform, but the consensus was that leveraging the power of the web, integrating web services into the mobile medium is the future of mobile.
While many of the discussions leaned on the technical, I found it a breath of fresh air to hear so much discussion about the mobile web from the mobile community. Contrast that with the Future of web Apps conference last month, also in San Francisco, mobile was hardly mentioned at all. Seems like we have a disconnect.
#2 The mobile web browser is the next killer app
If Mobile 2.0 is the web, then the mobile web browser is the next killer app. There were many discussions about the future of mobile browsers, their capabilities and the what the future holds.
Of particular concern is how device fragmentation factors into mobile browsers. For example, how can we expect developers to support 30+ different mobile browsers? Luckily both myself and Charles from Opera had a chance to answer this question explaining that simple XHTML Basic code, with simple CSS will render fairly consistently across most modern handsets.
Fellow panelist Chris, from the Mozilla Minimo project felt we will see only a few browsers in the future, Minimo/Mozilla, Opera Mini/Opera, Internet Explorer and Nokia/Apple webkit. While I think that statement is a little too focused on the Smart Phone market and leaves out big players like OpenWave and Access, I do agree that we are beginning to see strong encouragement toward the reduction of mobile browsers. I just don’t think it will be just the “big four.”
#3 Mobile web Applications are the future
Creating mobile web applications instead of software applications is of a lot of interest. The mobile community is really looking at the web 2.0 revolution for inspiration. They see the success of small iterative development cycles and want to apply it to mobile.
Developers seem keen to shift away from the costly mobile applications, that are difficult to get through the mobile service provider gates, require massive testing cycles and can easily miss the mark with users after dumping loads of money into it.
Mobile software has two fundamental problems that mobile web applications solve. First it needs to be loaded on to the handset, either via download to phone from PC or through the mobile service provider. Neither are ideal. Second, software is difficult to update over-the-air (the mobile hardcore would say OTA). Once the software is loaded, that’s it. The user doesn’t receive any of the benefits of minor bug fixes or modest upgrades.
#4 AJAX is the next frontier
There is a lot of focus on AJAX being the next big hurdle to the mobile web experience. Opera, Minimo and the Nokia/Apple browser all support it today, but it still feels like we have a long way to go until we begin to see the rich interaction we’ve become accustom to the past few years on the desktop web.
Again, I saw a speaker bias for Smart Phones and PDAs which most of the attendees tend to own, and not a lot of discussion of when AJAX can be expected on the widely more popular Feature Phones. It is important to understand that your common Feature Phone is three to four times more saturated than higher end Feature Phones.
I expect in 2007 we will see a flurry of announcements focused on AJAX, or AJAX-based web applications on mobile phones. But I think it may not be until 2008 that we see the market saturation of AJAX supported browsers high enough to give it much weight.
#5 Javascript kills battery life
I knew about this one, but not to the degree that was stressed. I mean they really stressed it, like 10 times. Using Javascript on a mobile phone consumes A LOT of power.
Using a AJAX based web application can drain at a rate of 4–5 times your normal power consumption. So unless you are in the habit of carrying around a bunch of extra batteries, like one person suggested, expect to charge your phone every hour or two as a penalty for being on the bleeding edge.
As a side note, there was also a lot of discussion of how accessing the device capabilities like the phone book or files system with Javascript doesn’t work in a consistent way. That better Javascript support on devices, not just with better power performance, but also richer interaction between device and client scripts.
#6 The Mobile User Experience Sucks/Rules/Is Hot!
There was a lot of talk about mobile user experience. The attitudes varied throughout the day, from “the mobile user experience is utterly horrid,” to “look at these cool things you can do,” to “the mobile user experience is the future!”
The polar attitudes toward the mobile user experience was fascinating to observe. It seemed as everyone was treating it like a chicken and the egg scenario, bad input/output of the user experience prevents adoption, but designing a shiny user experience with bells and whistles will bring them in droves.
What was missing was discussion about goals and what people are trying to do with mobile devices. Not too surprising, it was an industry conference after all. It would have been nice to see one person say, “I’ve talked to five people. They told me what they wanted on a mobile device. So we built it.”
#7 Mobile Widgets are the next big thing
There was a lot of discussion about widgets. Nokia’s venture WidSets demoed their widget platform as did SoonR. Hetal from Symbian talked about the advantages of creating small web-enabled applications. And I had a great discussion with Chris at Mozilla about using XUL to create Minimo-based applications like we see with Firefox.
The consensus seems to be that the solution for the mobile web is to create a series of “small webs” targeted at a specific user or task. I couldn’t figure out the problem they were solving was, but the widgets looked cool.
Don’t get me wrong, while I believe that the concept of small network enabled applications is very promising. The mobile industry tends to take promising ideas like this, inflate expectations to unsustainable levels then abandon them at the first sign of trouble or for the next big thing, whichever happens first.
In my mind, the mobile web is here and no one is creating content for it. It is the long bet. Let’s try to get that sorted out first before we try to abstract a layer on top of it.
#8 The Carrier is the new “C” word
I noticed a strong tendency by all who took the podium to avoid uttering the word “Carrier.” Even the European folks rarely used the word “Operators,” the equivalent term used elsewhere in the world to describe mobile service providers.
It was almost as though they didn’t exist for a day. Maybe the attendees preferred to see a future with no mobile service providers at all. I think more likely the case is that everyone has finally figured out that you can’t make a buck if your business relies on carriers. Though the “C” word wasn’t uttered, it still was the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
With so much focus on the mobile web, it became obvious to me that everyone is looking for a way around the carriers. The mobile web looks to be their best shot at the moment.
#9 People abuse the Podium
This has nothing to do with mobile, but it was a big issue of the day for me. Many speakers abused the privilege of taking the podium and speaking to their peers. Rather than discuss their insights into the topic of the panel, they walked us through their product, company numbers or recycled market data, often a year or more old. They gave us nothing to think about, they did not challenge our views or perceptions, nor did we walk away with a beneficial view of the speaker, their content or the company.
Most panelists were invited to give a short overview or introduction before the moderator took to Q&A. Many took 15–20 minutes to painfully walk us through their talking points. multiply that by a panel of four and there is your hour, giving us little time for questions or discussion.
Speaking in front of your peers is a privilege, and should be treated with respect.
Also, don’t even think about doing a presentation unless you’ve read Tufte. Just because you have five minutes doesn’t mean you cram an hour of content into 8 slides. The pinnacle moment of the day was “the conclusion” of two slides with 10 points each.
#10 We are creators not consumers
The highlight of the day was Tony Fish giving an excellent, though very under-appreciated, discussion about Mobile web 2.0. He provided a variety of well spoken points about the trends, needs and goals of people. Things like user-generated content, mash-ups, etc are not new concepts, but have been around for hundreds of years. He not only provided historical context, but excellently applied current trends to the mobile web.
The most memorable moment was when he forwarded the theory that we are not consumers at all, but creators. When everyone has the tools to create content, in addition to zero-cost publishing, we do not consume content, we create it.
His talk was inspiration, well thought out and well delivered. I look forward to reading his book and chatting to him more at future events.
Excellent writeup Brian, thank you! I thought Tony’s presentation was probably the high point as well. And I’m definitely hoping that the mobile web is the way around the C word.
Thanks for summarizing this. I could not attend and I heard a lot of good things from my colleagues. This write up makes up for not attending some bit.
Great abstraction. I totally agree with you. But, I think there are two missing points. First, there is missing that we should consider to standardize for Mobile Web. Second, lake of a view on “Mobile Web as a Platform”.
thanks Brian. I was not there. But I am reading the blogs. HEre are some comments. The first one is that the set of speakers overlapped to a great extent with the W3C Best Practices working group. This IMO could only prevent the event from delivering a balanced view of the mobile today. Just consider the fact that BP is created by W3C to enter a field which has never been their own: mobile. Now what other message would you expect from W3C if not that mobile and web are one (or at least convergin)? I hope practitioners are a bit smarter than that. Notably, a bunch of actors were either missing or underprepresented: Carriers: Device Manfucturers,Brwser manufacturers and, incredibly enough, developers!!!!
Specifically to the points you raise in your blog:
>#1 Mobile 2.0 = The Web
this is bullshit. Mobile is a different medium than the web. It has different purposes, extra possibilities and extra limitations. Sure, you can use web servers to deliver web content, but that’s about it. Finding common ground at all costs just gets people to waste precious energy rather than focusing on the real issue: building usable, succesfull services that consumers will adopt.
>The mobile web browser is the next killer app
it’s not a killer app in itself.It may be one of the mediums to deliver a killer app. But there are others. Java, Symbian, Flash lite being the main ones. But there are more.
> Mobile Web Applications are the future
I hope you are right :)
> AJAX is the next frontier
Ajax is an extra feature that may or may not do the job in some cases. Given current browser support, it is certainly overhyped. Ajax is welcome, but telling developers or anyone else to go out and do Ajax for Ajax’ sake, is just plain bad advice.
>Javascript kills battery life
Yup. An so does Java and so do mobile browsers. This is one of the limitations of mobile we have known about since 1999. BTW, Ajax is Javascript. Applying logic here: “The next frontier is a technology that kills your battery life!”. Just kidding ;)
>The Mobile User Experience Sucks/Rules/Is Hot!
User experience is key. Full stop. It always amazes me how nerds of different extractions with smartphone, PDAs and high-end devices keep speaking about their own virtual mobile in their own virtual world that just exists in their heads. The money is somewhere else. The money is in mass adoption by consumers who don’t care wether the underlying technology is web, wap or magic. Would your mother buy a vacuum because it uses the same technology as an airplane or because it works for her? We need to build applications that have more values than cost to the consumer. That’s what matters. If the lessons learned from the event are those you described, it appears to me as a lot of misleading info was peddled to the audience.
> Mobile Widgets are the next big thing
these were probably interesting demos. I am sorry I couldn’t be there. Anyway, for the record, these will just mean more fragmentation for developers and not standardization.
> The Carrier is the new “C” word
I’ll need to spend a few words in defence of carriers here. Do you know what a huge investment carriers are making to put those handsets in the hands of millions of users? installing base stations, managing the network, thousands of employees, certifying devices, subsidizing devices….after all, it’s their soup. Is it strange that they dont like others to go and dunk the bread in their soup? I don’t think it is. Of course, everyone is free to try, but I don’t think there are particularly high moral grounds to claim that carriers are bad and others are good. Everyone is just playing their game. Not more not less. The fact that this point of view was not defended by anyone just shows how biased the set of speakers was.
> People abuse the Podium
organizers could have demanded to review the presos, or at least issued guidelines to the speakers.
> We are creators not consumers
good point.
Luca
I wish I could have been there, it sounds like it was a really fun shindig.
Great comments. thanks. I have posted about them on the OpenGardens blog. For a long version, see <a href=”http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2006/11/mobile20_great.html” rel=”nofollow”>http://opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2006/11/mobile20_great.html</a> from Dr Paddy Byers on the OpenGardens blog
2 The mobile web browser is the next killer app
I do not think, the next killer app will provide a usefull service. A web browser does not provide anything except a means to access to applications, so these might be the next killer app….(in fact, it’s in opposition with your first remarks, you are talking of technical means, not applications)
4 AJAX is the next frontier
5 Javascript kills battery life
Again, back to technical consideration, but one of the issue with scripting language, is that they are also much more costly than low level, and that’s why I think that there will be an in-between scenario.
One question, was there any discussion about FlashLite, which seemd to be so hot the last monthes?
6 The Mobile User Experience Sucks/Rules/Is Hot!
Again, agree with Lucas, User Experience rules
7 I can only agree! ;-)
8 The Carrier is the new “C” word
I still do not understand this point…There is no direct link between carrier and mobile Web vs Application…Carriers haves the pipe, they can create walled garden if they want, wathever is the technology even with Mobile Web. But they have customer, billing system, and micro billing. They are slow to move, but not always “evils”, they just try to figure out to still be in the game
Thanks to everyone for adding their comments. I think that I should reiterate, that these were my observations from the event, I am not stating these as fact.
That being said I have some followup points:
Mobile 2.0 = The Web
Terms like Mobile 2.0 can’t be defined, just as Web 2.0 has a million different interpretations, Mobile 2.0 is a high minded label for the ideal future. I do not think it is bullshit to have a conversation about the future of mobile. At the event, conversations about the future leaned to the web, as I think they should.
Everyone talked about how mobile devices could could connect to the web, through a browsers, application, widget, backend service, etc. I think this is an important shift in the thinking of the mobile industry toward what consumers want on their mobile devices.
This is a good thing.
The mobile web browser is the next killer app
Again, this was an observation of the event, but I have to disagree with some of the comments. To prove this point I’ll ask everyone who bought a Mac in the last seven years to raise their hand. Apple brought themselves back from the brink of disaster starting in 1998. It started with the iMac (Remember that the “i” stands for Internet?).
The web browser changed the landscape of desktop computing in the late 90’s, Apple saw unprecedented success partially due to this (though not the sole reason of course). It became the equalizer where is didn’t matter what system architecture you were using, the content and services that consumers wanted were online. The vast majority of our tasks today, rely on the web browser.
The was and still is the killer app of the desktop world. It no coincidence that major publishers, media outlets, content publishers and the venture capital and backs new business are dumping billions into the web. I think it is logical to assume that the mobile web browser could have a similar impact on the mobile medium.
This isn’t to nay-say about the opportunity that exists for other services or applications. But I believe that web-based mobile applications, focused on published or interacting with online data will be the most useful. Just as the most useful applications on our desktop interact with the web in some way.
This is the Information Age. Access to information provides financial and social gain. It is logical to assume that the mobile web will service this need in the future just as the desktop browser does today. Therefore access to information and services online, most likely via a mobile browser, would be of paramount importance to the user.
The Mobile User Experience Sucks/Rules/Is Hot!
I don’t think I describe the audience as ignoring the importance of User Experience. I don’t think they did any more or less than I would typically expect from a mostly developer or industry leader event. The user experience is always underestimated, regardless of the medium.
I do agree that the user experience is key. There is no other medium that depends on or needs it more. It always amazes me much that so much lip service is given to its importance, but how little attention is actually given. Let’s do another hand count, all the designers with mobile experience raise their hands. There are so few of us, and its not like others are rushing the gates to get in, even though every major mobile publisher has open positions in mobile design. Where is the disconnect?
*The Carrier is the new “C” word*
I stated “I think more likely the case is that everyone has finally figured out that you can’t make a buck if your business relies on carriers.” I understand how this could be a little confusing, and I’ll dive in a little more.
If you plan to produce anything in mobile and distribute it through the carrier portal (called a deck), then you must jump through a lot of hoops, regardless if you are talking about applications or a mobile website. These hoops are so cost prohibitive to support, that individual mobile developers or small publishers cannot afford to pursue them.
One alternative is have your mobile application of link to your website put directly on a device at its manufacture, called pre-loaded. This not only means you have to work with the carrier that device will be provisioned to, but you also must work with the device manufacturer. Making it even more expensive than just getting on the deck.
The alternative is that you publish your content through the mobile web, called “off deck”. Of course, you still have to go through your carrier to get to the mobile web, but it is an invisible process. The carrier acts more like an Internet service provider, a “mobile service provider” if you will. You open your mobile web browser and go to a URL just as you would on the desktop.
By publishing on the mobile web, you have more control of your content. You can distribute your applications or just provide your mobile website, without any costly mobile service provider oversight. This significantly reduces your overall time and cost to market.
At the event, this fact seemed to be a reoccurring theme. I think this is an important shift in the mobile landscape and worth noting.
Wonderful log Brian, I could not attend the conference but you almost made up for it !! I agree with most of your observations in how mobile web is shaping up. I also feel that the next killer app in Mobile Industry is the browser which has capabilities /supports the markup to access platform functionality !!! Cheers, Lalit
Luca, you are not correct in saying: “Mobile is a different medium than the web” means that “Mobile 2.0 = The Web” is untrue. It is critical to a lot of futures that these ideas don’t get garbled.
Mobile is a type of interface for web content. For the 1billion+ people who have mobiles and no PCs, mobile is the web because mobile is the only peek they get at it. Giving them a better look multiplies use and markets.
Building services without common ground was a characteristic of the dotcom time when ideas and money were thrown at anything that worked in the moment. The Web is the common ground for which the mobile can be the delivery device for billions of people. An = sign belongs between web and mobile on that basis.
> For the 1billion+ people who have > mobiles and no PCs, mobile is the web > because mobile is the only peek they > get at it. Giving them a better look > multiplies use and markets
I lost track of how many times I have been hearing this, but I do remember when I heard it the first time: 1999!!!
Now, this is wrong. So wrong. Ridiculously wrong! not only is a mobile device so different from a computer than only a great stretch of the immagination can make you call one the crippled version of the other, BUT a mobile phone is just as expensive as a PC (if not more) and airtime is so much more expensive. So, what you say is simply just not going to happen by a factor of one-hundred, just like it has not happened over the past 7 years.
Mobile and web are different worlds with different value propositions. Negating evidence is just wasting your and everyone’s time.
Luca
The next big thing is mobile phone, which is simple, simply and enjoyable to use. Without a web browser ;)
“Mobile and web are different worlds with different value propositions…” Certainly this is so. Independent of mobile, the web has become a grand, global content commons.
Mobile wastes its creative efforts when it tries to rebuild something like the web content within walled gardens for mobile-only access.
Conversely, some mobile devices already give a peek at Web content. Whither that may go, and when, is up to mobile developers and up to web folks who could adapt their content to mobile use.
1 Mobile 2.0 = The Web
>>Not true… Not true. And Mobile 2.0 is not Mobile Web 2.0
2 The mobile web browser is the next killer app
>> Mobile browsers will continue to improve over time
3 Mobile Web Applications are the future
>> The comeback… Mobile Web apps will continue to improve over time (see above)
4 AJAX is the next frontier
>> Disagree
5 Javascript kills battery life
>> Anything that runs on the handsets do.
6 The Mobile User Experience Sucks/Rules/Is Hot!
>> Yes, mobile experience is key!
7 Mobile Widgets are the next big thing
>> Widgets have a great potential - but they are a medium, not a killer app
8 The Carrier is the new “C” word
>> Carriers own the network, the handset the walled-garden
9 People abuse the Podium
>> That’s too bad.
10 We are creators not consumers
>> Yes. And we are both, creators and consumers
ceo
> “we do not consume content, we create it”
Er, I consume it. I think the studies done on this sort of thing suggest that (as a huge over-generalisation), 90% consume, 10% create a bit, 1% create a lot. I think Jakob Neilsen talked about this at some point this year.
And as for “There is no direct link between carrier and mobile Web vs Application”, I, for one, won’t be doing any significant web stuff on my mobile until the pricing structure for it is like UK broadband, i.e. reasonably low fees, unlimited access. If we paid for broadband by the byte like we do on mobiles, YouTube and Flickr would not exist. And if the carriers can’t make money with that pricing, then I’d bet money the mobile web will remain relatively little-used.
Good Blog:) Thanks for sharing this info. I would comment on only 3 points:
2 The mobile web browser is the next killer app
I hope it will. There are millions of users wanting this to happen. But for this, browsers may have to improve a lot.
3 Mobile Web Applications are the future
Surely, if point 2 succeeds. User experience is the key. If we get much more responsive browsers + Applications… then who wants to play games locally stored on Mobile.
4 AJAX is the next frontier
Who knows:).. Any better technology can come in market before AJAX penetrates too far. But it looks good at this point of time.
“90% consume, 10% create a bit, 1% create a lot”
Wow this is 101%! Who are the extra 1%, aliens?
“I’ve talked to over 30 people. They told me what they wanted on a mobile device. So we built it.”
<a href=”http://gluenow.com/” rel=”nofollow”>http://gluenow.com/</a>
It’s good to hear this stuff from you guys. We were able to sidestep carriers and just give people the web / mobile content publishing app they wanted. Many of our clients are in bands and travel a lot… so they need an easy way to update their website. Glue seemed to be the ticket.
hi everyone, I’m discovering the articles, and comments, seems it’s a real topic/issue.
to my mind, i agree mobile web will not the duplicate of web services, but mobile web needs to learn from web, and mobile web is the future of web. remember that web1.O was web in our house, web2.O is our web (we published, create easily, creaet communities) and (call it) web3.0 is web all around us. that is mobile web, no-end connection trough mobile devices that brings us same quality of services than web on a PC/LP. no more no less.
I agree about mobile browser that sucks, wihch create bad user experience. who can say that it’s easy/fun to navigate on a mobile phone. but nobody talks about the device itself. can we imagine mobile web on a mobile screen 200x150pix? or on a blackberry?!! is the only navigation system is up and down scroll? who is imaging the mouse of future mobile device? I agree that new applications will have to be created, interoperate, work on different device based on different current or new technology, the point is that the device itself has to change. and probably get bigger.
last point that deserve more interest is that mobile we cannot just be a web made to sell products. we need the same exp as web. interactions, creating content, reading articles, etc. mobile web is not just a advert support for google ads!! end-user services, end-users needs, end-users understanding are the key point.
i finish on battery issue. it evolves quickly, Ni-Cd to Ni-Mh to Lithium Ion, I think this will be solved before mobile web exists. so browser or ajax will no longer kill battery.
I really believe on mobile end, as a end user, but fuck it, no more wap stuff on a small and ugly screen with sms text!! i want a real web on it.
F
Creators not consumers
many thanks for the kind words. Just for clarity on statements about 90%, 10% and 1% - it’s about a debate not about absolutes.
delighted to debate with anyone, anywhere but not at anytime as I do need some sleep.
best
Yes i agree with Jeff, the mobile web browser is the next dynamic module welcomed into our foray.
Interesting point about how Javascript diminishes battery life. Its an aspect both designers and ‘creators’ need to consider i guess.
Catchy domain name!.. Rather easy to remember, shouldnt be a problem for you to brand (SEO) i presume.
Is there anyone who can throw light on my problem. Somebody used my mobile browser without touching my cell phone. I have no clue how it happened when it was with me 24hours and it was switched off. I have Samsung SPH a920. This problem started after I bought this cell a couple of months ago. I got the shock of my life when I got a bill of thounds of dollars from Bell mobility. However, I am happy to say this Bell mobility has agreed to refund the charges of mobile browser. Bell has agreed to refund on one condition that I take unlimited internet service for$7.00/each on my and my husband’s cell for 6 months. I do not want to take this service because we do not use mobile browser at all. I want to know how can it be possible that somebody else uses my mobile browser when its with me and switched off. How can I prevent it from happening in future.
Mobile Widgets: have you checked out Alltel’s Celltop? Incredibly innovative BREW based widget platform that’s rolling out on all of their handsets!
Great report, a lot of valuable info. Thanks