We thought it’d be fun to pick a few topics and let you know what we thought the new year has in store for them. We’re pretty sure that if nothing else we’ll get you thinking, and maybe we’ll all learn something new. Or not. ;0)
In either case, here are our predictions and observations for 2006.
User Experience
Nick: User experience will play a major role in how some of the newer companies plan to market, distribute, and sell their products and services. Traditional business will start to see the value in user-centered design and why it’s important to not just advertise a product or service, but create a memorable experience that appeals to the specific market segment. Because of this, we will see an increase in narrowly focused products and services in 2006 that are tailored to specific audiences rather than mass-marketed to the public at large. Brian: In 2006 we will see companies really embrace people-centered design, putting the needs and wants of people before their own needs. By the end of the year there will still be a long way to go, but I think we will see huge strides this year. Keith: I’d love to tell you that 2006 is the year we all embrace user experience and people-centered design as a integral part of the design process, but I’m not sure I can. We’ve got quite a bit of work still to do here, and while I think there’ll be progress made (and we really hope to help as many as we are able) I still think we’ve got too far to go to declare 2006 a breakthrough year when it comes to user experience. Matt: The problem with UX is clear: all of the stakeholders think they’d have happier users if the web design process went more their way. I’ve seen developers, visual designers, art directors, marketing and sales, and even usability people give in to their own selfishness at the expense of the user experience. A lot of web teams need to step back and try to find a balance between their skills that would result in cleaner visuals, code and interaction, and focus the attention back on the user.Mobile
Brian: This is a big one for me: mobile will continue its rapid growth in 2006. The market boomed and balanced out in 2005, but a lot of the barriers to entry will be removed this year, making it much easier to get into mobile. If you aren’t thinking about in 2006 you are likely be finding yourself light-years behind in 2007. Nick: Not only is mobile going to continue to rapidly grow in adoption in 2006 but I am also predicting that it will become a core platform for information beyond what it is today. We will start to see more business adapt mobile strategies that assist their customers in ways we haven’t seen before. Integration between products, supply systems, websites, and mobile devices will start to become second nature for the general public. For this reason, e-commerce will start to see a broader expansion. Keith: I think mobile as a platform is due for a huge breakthrough. Right now there are just too many barriers to entry and as those begin to be broken down we’ll see a surge in mobile publishing and design. Matt: The growth of wireless in North America hinges on the cost of data services, and that’s where the operators have been most stingy. For example, EV-DO service from Verizon is $80/mo — more than most customers’ entire bill. We even pay to receive an SMS, unlike most places in the world. The infrastructure exists to do some amazing things in mobile, from the towers to the devices to the software. If the carriers could only find it in them to sell those services to voice customers, at a price they’re willing to pay, 2006 could be a watershed year for mobile.web Design
Keith: 2006 will be the year of the “design strategist” on the web. The focus will continue to be strategic realignment as opposed to cosmetic redesign. At the same time I see a bridging of the gap between form and function and I fully expect to see some amazingly beautiful work that works elegantly and simply. If you want to be inspired by design on the web, 2006 is the year to pay close attention. Nick: In 2006, we will see fewer and fewer redesigns as more sites continue to adopt standards like CSS and XHTML. More sites will simply do minor course corrections in the design and functionality rather than major overhauls with all-new designs. As we move into the later part of 2006, we will see that the sites that offer a good balance of form and function will continue to draw in more visitors and become more useful as they grow. Sites will start to not only be just usable, they will become truly useful.web 2.0
Brian: Someone, somewhere will start using the term “web 3.0.” Though they will likely be referring to a moderate extension of the principles of web 2.0, more of a web 2.5 if you will, or maybe it should just be called “web 2006.” Keith: You’re kidding right? Matt: Personally, I can’t wait for web 3.1. Isn’t that the version where Microsoft usually gets most of it right?Beyond the web
Brian: Long promised and way overdue, interacting with the web won’t be with just a computer. We are just now starting to see appropriately priced devices, like the Mobile, PSP, TiVo, Xbox 360 or the Nokia 770 that bring the web to whole new dimensions. The web will be pervasively accessible through a number of devices and by 2007. Keith: We’re already seeing huge diversity in the amount of accessible web-enabled devices on the market. I imagine that’ll continue, but at some point you’ve got to wonder how much is too much. Matt: Before we get “beyond” the web, though, we’re going to need to patch some long overdue potholes. Chief among them is Internet quality of service (QoS). If your telephone or electric service were as flaky as most broadband Internet service in the US, customers would scream bloody murder — that is, when they could get a dialtone and their lights weren’t flickering. Until Internet access is as reliable as any other utility — indeed, until Internet access is considered a utility itself — it’s not going to be a core resource for most people, whether they’re browsing it on a PSP or their toaster.Blogging
Keith: Blogging will continue to disperse among the masses with more and more blogs popping up every day and more and more old school bloggers cutting back on blogging. Matt: For me, 2005 was the year that blogging as a concept got rather boring to talk about. My friends — not all of whom are hardcore geeks, mind you — now begin conversations at parties not with small talk, but based on what they know of each other’s lives via their blogs and journals. Which is great for me, because I suck at small talk. But that single change is indicative of just what makes blogging powerful: it makes one-person broadcasting valuable, even if it’s only for an audience of two.Podcasting
Matt: Podcasting will go through an identity crisis in 2006. Will the amateur trailblazers behind podcasting come out looking like grizzled media veterans, or will they be cast aside by the big-media takeover, the ham-radio operators of online media? Will media search engines like Blinkx and Podscope take over for podcast directories like Podcast Alley or the one in iTunes, much like Altavista and Google took over when full-text search proved to scale better than Yahoo’s original directory model? Will anybody think of a better way to make money (if that’s what they want) from podcasting than just parroting radio’s tired ad model? And will the music licensing cartel ever get that music podcasters are their friends? (Signs point to no on this one.) Keith: Expect to hear a lot about podcasting this year. Expect to still have many folks wonder why. Matt: The podcasting story isn’t about how everyone should start their own show, like it was with blogging. It’s about seeing media in a different light: thousands of hours of content, available on demand, from all parts of the globe, and refreshingly free (for now) of the payola, mind-numbing repetition, eight-minute ad blocks and store-bought, white-bread blather that turned radio into the bland, beige wasteland it’s become.Social Groups
Brian: I predict we will see a huge increase in social groups, people meeting in the real world on various topics. Technology has been increasing feelings of isolation for many for over ten years now. We already saw a big increase in 2005; I think the trend will continue this year, surpassing last year’s growth.web Communities
Brian: I think we will see a increasing trend for companies to try to build communities on the web this year. This should be a welcome change toward a more value-oriented strategy of content publication. Keith: I think more and more companies will jump on the blogging and community building platform. They’ll continue to feel their way around and hopefully many will be able to integrate community successfully into their communication strategy. Matt: I have to go the other way on this one. All things being equal, people aren’t going to look to product-oriented companies for community, firstly because it’s inconvenient, and secondly because there’s a risk that discussions will be sanitized. I think a better strategy for a company to reach out to customers is to put people out in third-party communities on, for example, Yahoo Groups or MySpace, than to cultivate a community of one’s own. And that doesn’t mean sending marketers or astroturfing a given community, but actually communicating honestly and publicly with people. That’s a much more promising approach than slapping a copy of vBulletin on an existing site and moderating it with an iron fist.Tell you what. When they take all the data they have between Froogle and Google Base hooked up so that I can find all native 720p DLP front projectors with over 1500 ANSI lumens and a DVI input with one search, and I’ll let them have another year. Find it for me in stock in the Seattle area, and I’ll give them the whole damn decade.
Timeshifting
Brian: I think 2006 will be the year of timeshifting, like TiVo or podcasting, recording programming and watching it on your schedule. This concept has been incredibly popular, but still fairly marginal, no one has been able to taking it mainstream yet. I think this year we will see a huge explosion in timeshifting technologies, including on-demand. By 2007, 50-60% of home entertainment will be either timeshifted or on-demand. Look for the fruition of the Netflix and TiVo agreement this year.Apple
Brian: Speaking of timeshifting, I believe Apple will release an iPod for your home. Front Row is an obvious indicator that a home media device from Apple is in the horizon. I think a product from Apple will use iTunes to deliver on-demand movies, television and music will do to home entertainment what the iPod did for digital music. Matt: Everybody in the Blue Flavor office knows that I’m waiting with bated breath to see what Steve Jobs announces at Macworld 2006 on Tuesday. If the Mac mini PVR rumor is correct, I suggest we take the year from Google and give it to Apple. If the device supports high-definition content, they could leapfrog TiVo, whose HD device isn’t due until the second half of the year, and make that Netflix tie-up seem obsolete if they can offer up video downloads. Apple already appears to have the market for on-demand television locked up with their NBC and ABC partnerships. For that matter, I think TV networks will start to advertise the online availability dates of their shows in their promos starting this year.I’ll look out a little further, and say this: Apple is positioned to be the first media company to provide a package of streaming and on-demand television that will be compelling enough to move some customers off of cable entirely. Everybody else in this space seems too paranoid to start making that a reality.
Wi-Max vs. Mobile Carriers
Brian: I skeptical that Wi-Max will move from hype to reality in 2006. I believe the mobile carriers are going to give it a serious run for the money. With carrier infrastructure and consumer-base already in place, fast, cheap and pervasive data access should be available in most major markets in Q4 of 2006.Meta Data
Nick: In 2006 we will see an increase in the exchanging of meta data via XML based formats much like the ones we use today (RSS/RDF, iCal/vCal, vCard, etc) but with greater flexibility. Microformats will continue to be on the radar and strongly advocated by some industry experts. New microformats will be released as frequently as we say when feeds were beginning to be adopted. For this reason XSLT and other related languages will see an increase in adoption. Matt: You can only do so much by retrofitting old formats. I think RDF is due to prove its mettle this year and show more real-world applications and a shallower learning curve than developers had previously experienced. People want open formats and interoperability in a broad range of applications, and RDF is a solid contender to enable connected applications that just work, with all sorts of data.TV Shows
Keith: Battlestar Galactica will attract more and more viewers as the 2006 season reviews come in. HBO will be bigger than ever. Lost will pick up the pace or be, well…lost. Brian: Speaking of TV, I think Battlestar Galactica (Season 3) will be the standout show of 2006. Lost will be exactly that by the end of the year. And the illustrious return of the Sopranos in March I think will show that no one is safe, even the patriarch himself. Matt: I’m all about The Boondocks this year. It and the Daily Show are the only two programs I look forward to. But I’ll probably be sucked into the last season of The Sopranos, too…Prepare for the Future
Brian: 2006 should be the year of strategy, because by 2007 or 2008 I think all the rules will change.What’re your predictions?
Now that we’ve laid down our B.S. you can lay down yours—or you can take a poke at ours. ;0) Have a great 2006 everyone.
“They’ve had some cool apps in the last few years, but the only one I’d really consider indispensable was Google Maps.”
Matt, I think you forgot to mention Gmail. ;)
Interesting predictions. The general public is really starting to catch on Blogging and Podcasting, I’ve seen both topics in articles in the local newspaper, pretty cool. I wonder what cool geek-exclusive (for a while, at least) phenomena will come for us next.
2006 will certainly see a lot more standards being used by people who’ve been slow to adopt, and user experience is going to be a significant topic.
Brian made a good point about social groups and the fact being that text messaging is not enough for us and still leaves us very much isolated. I hope, and quite sure that this trend of a growing number of new social groups will skyrocket, it’s great. Not just to discuss the variety of topics we are interested in and interact, but to collaborate and work together to make a living.
I have not seen anything very exciting from Google since Gmail and Google Maps, but Apple will be exciting! ;o)
Adam — It’s funny you mention standards. I purposefully left out any mention of standards because I feel we’ve already reached a tipping point there and while it’s true (way too true) that there are many out there who still cling to archaic Web development practice, the people who matter—our clients—already seem to get it.
But I do agree. I think people who’ve been lagging will be pretty much forced to catch up.
I predict a ridiculous expenditure of wood floors…
>>Matt: Personally, I can’t wait for Web 3.1. Isn’t that the version where Microsoft usually gets most of it right?
=)
Well, it only took 17 days before <a href=”http://alistapart.com/articles/web3point0” rel=”nofollow”>Web 3.0</a> appeared.
@ Keith: I’m still not convinced we’ve reached the tipping point for standards just yet. I see lots of work being done with old dev practices and little interest to move on.
Hi Guys,
You are right on track as usual. I suspect Google may need a browser as well to stop Microsoft making the new version of IE only working with their products and search systems. I live in hope Google may actually make an OS as well.